The Case-Shiller Report (CSR), which provides a glimpse into the housing market, is closely reported by all the major media outlets but there are some things about this report that aren’t revealed in a 45 second sound bite.

First off, their index for home sales in Boston is down 3.4% which in this market is great considering other area’s of the country are down double digits.

It’s hard for me to say this is an accurate forecast on the health of our Boston housing market. Here’s why:

1) Local Media Outlets lead people to believe that the report covers all of Massachusetts. It does not. The geographical region in which the data collected to compile the CSR for Boston is Boston-Cambridge-Quincy. So its not even an accurate report for the city of Boston’s health let alone the whole state

2) The CSR only takes into account single families. Even further it excludes New Construction Single Family homes. To qualify for the index the home must have two transactions on the title. In other words, the house must have turned over (sold) at least twice. This creates a huge whole in the report since Boston (as well as Cambridge and Quincy) has a very large supply of condos and even in this slow market new homes are being built.

If you want to try your luck at forecasting I would look no further than the Warren Group for local data. They take the concerns raised above into account in their reports.

That said both Professors Case and Shiller are very smart economists and are widely respected in their field - as they should be. I just wish they would fill in the gaps to provide a more accurate forecast of our Boston Market.

Filed under: Boston Real Estate Editorial